Predicted Grades and References Explained

What predicted grades are

Predicted grades are the results your school or college believes you are likely to achieve in your final qualifications (such as A-levels or the IB), submitted as part of your UCAS application before you have sat those exams. They are a professional judgement made by your teachers based on your performance so far.

You do not set your own predicted grades — your school does. Universities use them to assess your application and decide what kind of offer to make, since your actual results are not yet known when you apply.

What the academic reference is

The reference is a statement written by someone at your school or college — usually a teacher, tutor, or careers adviser — that supports your application. In recent cycles UCAS moved the reference to a more structured format with set questions covering your suitability for higher education and any context that should be considered.

Like predicted grades, the reference comes from your school, not from you. It is intended to give universities an informed, professional view of you as a student alongside the personal statement you write yourself.

• Written by a teacher, tutor, or adviser at your school or college
• Now follows a structured, question-based format set by UCAS
• Comments on your suitability and any relevant context
• Separate from your personal statement, which you write yourself

How predicted grades feed into conditional offers

When a university makes a conditional offer, it offers you a place on the condition that you meet specified results (for example, particular A-level grades or an IB points total) when your real exam results come out. Predicted grades help the university decide whether to make such an offer and at what level.

If you later meet the conditions, the place is normally confirmed; if you narrowly miss, the university may still confirm, hold the place, or you may use UCAS Clearing. Exactly how this works is governed by UCAS and each university's own policy, so check the official guidance for your cycle.

Why accuracy and context matter

Predicted grades and the reference are meant to be honest and evidence-based. Schools are expected to predict grades fairly, and the reference can flag context — such as a significant disruption to your studies — that helps a university read your application in the round.

If you think a prediction or reference does not reflect your situation, the right step is to talk to your school early. The specifics of how predictions and references are prepared and used can vary and are reviewed over time, so rely on official UCAS guidance and your school's advice rather than assumptions.